Dear Pajarito Faithful,
I don’t say this lightly: get ready, because this winter has a real shot at being one for the record books. There’s a name for why, and you’re going to be hearing it a lot over the next few months — El Niño.
What’s El Niño, and Why Should You Care?
El Niño is a warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that reshapes weather patterns across the entire globe. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center made it official in June, issuing an El Niño Advisory, and their outlook now puts the odds of El Niño sticking around through the heart of our season at 96 to 98%. Some forecasters are even watching for this to develop into a strong, possibly “Super” El Niño by winter.
Here’s the part that matters most to us: in a typical El Niño winter, the storm track shifts south, and the southern tier of the U.S. — including right here in northern New Mexico — tends to run wetter and cooler than average. For the Jemez, that historically translates into more frequent storms and healthier snowpack than a normal year. This is the pattern that produced some of Pajarito’s best remembered winters.
We’re Not Just Counting on Luck
As you know if you’ve read our recent updates, we’ve spent this entire summer overhauling Pajarito’s snowmaking system, adding new pump houses, new electrical infrastructure, and dramatically more snow guns, on top of a brand-new water pipeline from Los Alamos. Aspen lift and our beginner lift are both getting top-to-bottom mechanical work so they’re ready to run reliably all season long.
Put that together with a favorable El Niño setup, and you’ve got the two biggest ingredients for a great season stacking in our favor at the same time: a mountain built to make and hold snow, and a weather pattern that historically wants to deliver it.
Worth Remembering
El Niño shifts the odds in our favor, it doesn’t guarantee a single storm. But between the upgrades on the mountain and the pattern setting up overhead, we haven’t been this excited for a season in a long time.
Lock in your pass, tell your ski buddies, and get your gear ready. We’ll see you on the mountain.
Stoked for what’s ahead,
Jasen Bellomy
General Manager, Pajarito Mountain Ski Area
